week three | mingle

[marriagebroker]

No outright changes this week either. Week three rolls around, braced for impact as ever. The estate is still intact, the contestants are still motivated, things are looking good.

Well, aside from the fact you all had a blackout this weekend. That wasn't so good.

Either way, when Monday rolls around, Wei Wuxian seems to be in a cheery mood as he greets everyone Monday morning.

"Everyone, come here, come here. I have an announcement!"

Better go see what that's about, huh?

Boom Boom Room | Dates | Property Damage
Truth Booth Voting | Match Ceremony Voting

Comments

Catherded by an angel

[nrangel]

[ You know how this goes, fellows. Girls just want to be tall.

So here is Serpilia climbing up onto the counter that started this all, cupping her hands around her mouth, and calling out in her biggest voice. ]

Hey! We need to talk about the Truth Booth!

[ And when enough people have made their way over to her. ]

Given how it was the only thing that saved us from a blackout last round, we need to be serious with this one.

[ordimame]

[. . . grabbing her some paper towels and l*sol, too. is he the only one who didn't use the counter?]

My vote is for Aventurine and Maya.

[crimsin]

[ HE KEEPS OFFERING PLATFORMS and different people keep getting on the counter each time. He tried, sorry Edamura. ]

Why do you say that?

[ordimame]

[thank you for respecting food preparation surfaces, Nico]

Aventurine's confidence, for one. Not that it's any stronger than your confidence in yourself and Verso, but it sways me.

Plus, I said last week that it'd be a good way to test Wei Wuxian's insight, too. Since Aventurine's confidence comes from the things he has said.

[nrangel]

[ Not their fault Edamura is no fun about this particular issue. ]

I remembering you mention it last time.

[ Test the overseer's intuition. ]

It's not a bad line of logic, and besides that their chances of being a perfect match are a lot higher than most other combinations we could put in there.

[ordimame]

[THEY MAKE FOOD ON THESE COUNTERTOPS???]

Yeah! I think it's a pretty solid choice. It's what my gut is telling me!

[reverso]

They have my vote, too.

[Since he can't vote for himself, really.]

Plus, I think they've a pretty likely chance.

[beatmatching]

It's short sighted.

[ i swtg he has math to back this up but I dont have my notes mobile. ]

[crimsin]

Let us not forget our hint from our dear overseer. Since we have confirmed one of the female-female pairings with Ringo and Furina, where should we go next?

[nrangel]

If we're going with that line of thinking, then statistically speaking going with another two girls makes a lot more sense. The numbers are really cut down.

[beatmatching]

[ luka is here with a rubiks cube, sliding the colors and blocks back and forth in a smooth rhythm. ]

Getting the most information about the rest of the pairs means we should test one of the same sex pairs. Using what we know means that would be either Nico and Verso or Messmer and Rom. Out of those pairs, I'd say the former though there might be arguments for the latter.

[hexensabbat]

Yeah, if we strike you and Serpilia and Odile and Edamura from the options, that just leaves those two pairs plus Maya and Aventurine as our last two lights.

Our chances are pretty good. Three pairs, two lights.

[nrangel]

So not trying to use it as a safety net, but trying to use it for more information.

[ Hmmmm... ]

A little riskier if we're wrong, but it could really shave down the possibilities if we're right.

[embellwish]

If it were Nico and Verso, then we'd have two of each type of pair left...

[ She tilts her head. ]

If it's them, who would you suppose is the third light from the first week?

[hexensabbat]

[She's sprawled on the couch. Probably with Furina? Unless Furina is off doing something else. It's fine.]

Soo our options from week one are... Maya and Aventurine, Edamura and Odile, Verso and Nico, Rom and Messmer, and you and Luka.

Personally, I think we should focus on Maya and Aventurine or Verso and Nico.

Either tells us a lot.

[nrangel]

Luka's making some pretty decent points with why we might want to lean towards Verso and Nico this time. Though...

[ Taps on her chin. ]

If we get it right with Maya and Aventurine there's literally only one other cross gender match it could possibly be.

[scooptimistic]

I don't mind going in, but we've talked about the high probability of Nico and Verso for two weeks now, and I'd sort of rather we have that set in stone one way or another. If we're positive on it and it turns out we're wrong, that won't bode too well this weekend.

[enscene]

[She's just happy to be here on the couch and not doing calculations.

Dreaming about being tall on the counter, though, probably, so her eyes are shiny while she watches Serpilia]

Mm, if we nail down a match between a man and a woman, that gives us a small group of women to determine matches for. Only a couple of us ladies have sat together at the ceremonies.

[Mathwise the argument is probably very compelling and solid; she's floating the domino effect.]

[irreversal]

[ from her usual spot along the wall where she loves to lean, ]

It seems like we're somewhat split on which of those two pairs we should go with. I'm inclined to agree with the reasoning for sending Nico-san and Verso, though, especially since we'd considered them along the same lines as you and Furina-san.

[gamboler]

[ He's mostly been keeping to himself and listening so far, arms crossed over his chest. Really, it's just so interesting he'd hate to cut in! All these debates of logic and mathematics and probability. It's a gambler's dream. ]

Hm. We seem to be split on opinions...the audience is truly in for a treat this week. I'm almost jealous I'm not watching, haha.

[nrangel]

We should be pretty set no matter who we pick, but you're right. It'll be interesting to see who the group goes for in the end, because I don't think we're in full agreement here.

[crimsin]

Hey.

[ Hey. He walks to stand with him, leaning shoulder to shoulder. ]

No matter what happens, it is not as if either one of us will be gone forever. Look at Furina and Ringo.

[beatmatching]

[ hey it's your resident idol who's actually a huge math nerd. he'll whistle to get everyone's attention, since he's not into feeling tall. ]

I've said it before, but I'll summarize.

If the intention is to solve for full pair completion, Nico and Verso contribute more to a full solve than Aventurine and Maya.

Testing Aventurine and Maya is tempting because it deals with known exclusions, with only two mixed pairs left. But mixed pairs make up only 25% of total pairs, which is basically solving a corner piece of a puzzle without knowing the shape of the rest of it.

The foundation of the pairs are same gender pairings and we don't have much time left to address them. By testing them now, we can get a better sense of the majority structure of the puzzle—which we need to get started on.

[irreversal]

The logic feels sound to me, Luka-san. I agree with sending Nico and Verso in.

Though I can't but wonder, [ teasingly ] if you're trying to keep Maya out of the booth for personal reasons.

[ordimame]

[. . .]

I guess I don't really get it, but. . . I'll trust you.

But I still think I'm personally going with my gut.